Squid Game poker strategy: what the last squid changes
We solved one five-handed No-Limit Hold’em table without Squid, with three squids left, with one squid left and as Progressive Squid, then solved one river exactly with and without the last squid at stake. Every frequency and EV on this page comes from those solves. The squid payments come from the rules.
What the solve says
- With one squid left, the button, on zero (holding no squid), opens 100.0% of its hands (44% without Squid).
- The big blind, also on zero, folds less than one percent against a cutoff open: it calls or 3-bets 100% of its hands (43% without Squid).
- With one squid left, the hijack, holding one, opens 44% (22% without Squid).
- On K♦8♠4♣2♥7♠ after the line below, the big blind bets pot 68% of the time and the cutoff folds 30% to it. Without Squid: 17% and 71%.
- With three squids left and the same holders, the button already opens 100.0% and the big blind defends 100% against a cutoff open. The hijack opens 38%, against 44% with one left.
- On the first hand of a Progressive Squid round, with two squids on the pot and nobody holding one, the hijack opens 78% and the cutoff 90% (22% and 29% without Squid). Against a cutoff open the small blind folds less than one percent (82% without Squid).
The table we solved
- Game
- No-Limit Hold’em, five-handed: hijack, cutoff, button, small blind, big blind
- Stacks
- 100bb each, blinds 0.5 / 1, no rake
- Bet sizes
- The Tree Wizard’s NLH 6max Cash - 100bb profile: opens to 2.5x (3x from the small blind). Flop half pot, turn three quarters, river pot.
- Squid
- Penalty 3 bb a squid. One squid left: the hijack, cutoff and small blind hold one each. The button and big blind are on zero, holding none.
- Ranges
- Every seat starts with every hand. The solves find the ranges.
- Rules as solved
- The winner of each pot takes a squid. When none are left, every seat on zero pays each holder the penalty for each squid held. A chop gives every sharer one.
One squid left: how wide does each seat open?
The hijack, cutoff and small blind hold a squid. The pot folds to each seat in turn.
| First in: % of hands | No Squid | One squid left |
|---|---|---|
| Hijack opens | 21.8% | 44.4% |
| Cutoff opens | 28.7% | 56.1% |
| Button opens | 43.8% | 100.0% |
| Small blind folds | 33.2% | 0.0% |
| Small blind limps | 45.1% | 74.9% |
| Small blind raises | 21.7% | 25.1% |
This pot ends the round. The button collects 3 bb if it wins the pot and pays 12 bb if anyone else does. The hijack collects 12 bb if it wins, 6 bb if another holder wins and 3 bb if the button or big blind wins.
One squid left: how wide does the big blind defend?
Folded to the cutoff, who opens to 2.5x. The button and small blind fold.
| Big blind against | No Squid: defends | No Squid: 3-bets | One left: defends | One left: 3-bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hijack open | 35.4% | 6.7% | 100.0% | 14.5% |
| Cutoff open | 42.6% | 8.6% | 100.0% | 19.0% |
| Button open | 57.3% | 13.0% | 100.0% | 28.6% |
Defends: calls or 3-bets.
Against each open the big blind on zero folds less than one percent, and it 3-bets 29% against a button open (13% without Squid).
One squid left, one river: who bets, who folds?
The cutoff opens and the big blind calls. K♦8♠4♣: the big blind checks, the cutoff bets half pot, the big blind calls. 2♥ checks through. River 7♠, 11.1 bb in the pot.
| River decision | No Squid | One squid left |
|---|---|---|
| Big blind bets pot first | 16.6% | 68.1% |
| Cutoff folds to that bet | 70.6% | 30.5% |
| Cutoff calls that bet | 24.3% | 54.4% |
| Cutoff raises that bet (any size) | 5.1% | 15.1% |
| Cutoff bets pot after a check | 22.7% | 46.1% |
| Big blind folds to that bet | 50.4% | 57.8% |
Each solve brings its own ranges to this river: the big blind arrives with 405 combos by weight with Squid on and 163 without, the cutoff with 194 and 140.
This pot carries the last squid. The big blind collects 3 bb if it wins and pays 12 bb if it loses. The cutoff collects 12 bb if it wins and 3 bb if it folds or loses.
Three squids left: is the change already there?
The same holders: the hijack, cutoff and small blind hold one each, the button and big blind none. Three squids still to hand out.
| % of hands | No Squid | Three left | One left |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hijack opens | 21.8% | 38.5% | 44.4% |
| Cutoff opens | 28.7% | 49.9% | 56.1% |
| Button opens | 43.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Small blind folds first in | 33.2% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Big blind defends against a cutoff open | 42.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
With three squids still to hand out, the button and big blind on zero play as they do with one left. The holders open a few points less: the hijack 38% and the cutoff 50%, against 44% and 56% with one left.
Progressive Squid, first hand: what does a two-squid pot change?
A new round at the dialog’s defaults: 8 squids to hand out, 2 on this pot, nobody holding, steps 3 held 2×, 5 held 4×, 7 held 5×, 3 bb a squid.
| % of hands | No Squid | Progressive, first hand |
|---|---|---|
| Hijack opens | 21.8% | 78.3% |
| Cutoff opens | 28.7% | 90.5% |
| Button opens | 43.8% | 100.0% |
| Small blind folds first in | 33.2% | 0.0% |
| Small blind folds to a cutoff open | 82.0% | 0.0% |
| Small blind 3-bets a cutoff open | 8.3% | 16.2% |
| Big blind folds to a cutoff open and a small blind call | 65.3% | 0.0% |
The small blind folds less than one percent to any open here, so the big blind almost never faces an open alone.
Nobody holds a squid yet, so every seat is on zero and this pot pays its winner 2 squids. A player’s squids grow in value together: one is worth 3 bb, three are worth 18 bb, seven are worth 105 bb.
What each seat wins per hand
Seat EVs from each preflop solve, squid money included: chips won or lost in the hand plus what this pot changes in what the round pays the seat. With three left and with one left, the hijack, cutoff and small blind hold a squid and the button and big blind are on zero. On the Progressive first hand nobody holds one.
| Seat | No Squid | Three left | One left | Progressive, first hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hijack | +0.13 bb | −0.37 bb | −0.40 bb | −1.21 bb |
| Cutoff | +0.18 bb | −0.24 bb | −0.26 bb | −1.04 bb |
| Button | +0.27 bb | +0.50 bb | +0.47 bb | −0.11 bb |
| Small blind | −0.22 bb | −0.47 bb | −0.47 bb | +0.78 bb |
| Big blind | −0.37 bb | +0.57 bb | +0.65 bb | +1.55 bb |
What barely moves: the small blind raises 22% of its hands first in without Squid and 25% with one squid left. Its limps rise from 45% to 75%.
At the table
- With one squid left, on the button on zero and folded to you: raise almost any two cards. The solve raises 100.0%.
- With one squid left, in the big blind on zero against a hijack, cutoff or button open: call or 3-bet your whole range. The solve folds less than one percent against each.
- With one squid left, holding a squid against a big blind on zero who bets pot first on this river: call or raise most hands. The cutoff folds 30% here (71% without Squid).
How this solve was created
How to Solve Squid Game Poker in HydraSolver, Step by Step
Watch on YouTube
Every step on this page, filmed as it was done: the tree, the Squid settings, the solves, Compare, the river, three squids left and Progressive Squid.
How it was solved
- HydraSolver 1.2.04. Solve Detail Standard for the preflop solves, each run until Volatility stayed at or under 1 (Auto-Stop, 5 checks in a row). The river solves are Exact.
- Accuracy reached: 0.03–0.13 bb/100 without Squid, 0.06–0.25 bb/100 with three squids left, ≤ 0.23 bb/100 with one squid left, 0.15 bb/100 on the Progressive first hand. Both river solves: 0.000% of the pot.
- Seat EVs include the squid money: what this pot changes in what the round pays each seat.
- One open size per seat and one bet size per street. Read how we measure accuracy on the No-Limit Hold’em proof.
Study it yourself
- Open these spots free
The preflop and river solves from this page, as HydraViewer files. Open them in your browser and click through every hand.
Free HydraViewer pack → - Solve your own table
Build the tree with the Tree Wizard and its NLH 6max Cash - 100bb profile at five players. In Settings, leave Solve Detail on Standard and Configure side game: pick Squid, set the squids left, who holds them and the penalty. In Auto, tick Volatility at 1 for 5 checks. Then Start.
Squid Game Poker Solver → - Try it for 10 days
The full version, unrestricted, for $150. Upgrade to a license for the difference at any time.
Start a trial →
More
Buy HydraSolver — $899 Try 10 days — $150 ← All strategy pages